6 Major disruptions transforming digital commerce in 2025
Drawing from extensive market research and conversations with industry executives, we examine six key developments shaping consumer brands' strategic choices.
The e-commerce landscape of 2025 presents a paradox: while technology enables unprecedented automation and efficiency, consumers increasingly value human connection. They embrace AI-powered search but crave authentic interactions. They demand instant delivery but worry about environmental impact. They shop through social feeds but question the authenticity of what they see.
Digital leaders navigate these opposing forces daily, making strategic decisions that often feel like calculated bets on an uncertain future.
Drawing from extensive market research and conversations with industry executives, we examine six key developments shaping these strategic choices.
Table of contents
01: The search revolution & Google’s challenge
02: Social commerce is the leading growth channel
03: Payment transformations: mobile, BNPL, and crypto
04: Shipping: changes in the last-mile, fulfillment, and returns
05: The human touch in AI-powered personalisation
06: The power shift among the big players
01: The search revolution & Google’s challenge
Google's traditional dominance is facing challenges from multiple directions. Traditional keyword searches are being replaced by conversational queries, with 55% of Americans now regularly interacting with AI search tools.
As a result, almost 2/3 of Google searches are "zero-click”. They end without clicks as AI provides immediate, synthesized answers without requiring users to click through to websites.
Other shifts in search
Visual search has become standard, with platforms like Perplexity. Meanwhile Pinterest is implementing AI-powered virtual try-ons.
Google is integrating content from multiple platforms, including TikTok videos and forum content.
17% of adults now use TikTok for search (up from 3% in 2020).
Voice search has emerged as a preferred method for many users, enabled by AI-enhanced assistants.
Search behavior by generation
(VML report, 2025 Predictions for Search Marketing)
Generation Z:
58% use traditional search engines
46% use social media for search
31% use AI platforms/chatbots
Boomers:
76% rely on traditional search engines
21% use social media
Heavy preference for established platforms
Key changes for brands:
The search evolution demands new optimization strategies:
Visual content integration
AI-readable product information
Conversational query optimization
Social platform presence
Zero-click result optimization
This shift demands brands adapt their digital presence across multiple touchpoints, as consumers increasingly begin their shopping journeys through diverse search channels rather than traditional search engines alone.
02 Social commerce is the leading growth channel
Social commerce is predicted to become the leading growth channel by 2029. 73% of consumers already make purchases through social media and 62% planning to increase their social shopping activity.
TikTok Shop’s remarkable market penetration:
The platform has rapidly achieved scale comparable to established retailers.
In the US, it matches Sephora in beauty consumer spending. It equals Temu in spending among Shein customers and outpaces growth of major platforms including Amazon and Target (Consumer Trends, 2025).
Influencer marketing is still playing a huge role here, as 69% consumers trust influencer insights more than traditional retail channels.
As a result, TikTok Shop shows impressive growth metrics:
Average order value via Tiktok Shop: $35
5.3 transactions per customer annually
87% consider it a natural extension of their TikTok experience
Key insights for brands:
The channel's success relies on several core elements:
Community-driven shopping with peer recommendations
Seamless integration of entertainment and commerce
Rapid inspiration-to-purchase journey
Interactive features like livestreams and Q&A sessions
Despite strong growth, important challenges remain:
Platforms push for native checkouts to maintain data control
Consumer trust issues remain. Many still hesitate to share payment information, question product quality or doubt product authenticity.
03 Payment transformations: mobile, BNPL, and crypto
Mobile is becoming the dominant channel and new payment methods gaining mainstream acceptance. Price sensitivity remains paramount in purchase decisions, while innovative payment solutions like BNPL and cryptocurrencies are reshaping how consumers complete transactions.
Mobile & BNPL rise:
In the US, mobile accounts for 54.5% of all online shopping, reaching peak of 65% on Christmas Day. However it’s worth mentioning that conversion rates are higher on desktop.
OnBuy, a popular cashback marketplace from the UK reports 30% day-on-day sales growth in key European markets.
Mobile continues to drive BNPL adoption with majority share of transactions
Price sensitivity:
Price remains #1 factor influencing online purchase decisions.
Value-conscious consumers driving increased adoption of flexible payment options.
Growing competition between payment providers leading to better consumer terms.
Digital currency evolution
Increasing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
New US administration supporting pro-crypto regulations.
Major platforms (Facebook and Amazon) developing "stablecoins" pegged to standard currencies.
Emergence of retail-specific digital tokens:
Marketplace-specific currencies to incentivize buying
Integration with loyalty programs
Key insights for brands:
Leverage technology to discover methods to incorporate exchange tokens into loyalty and incentive programs.
Payment infrastructures will inevitably need to evolve to support digital currencies and other emerging types of money.
04: Shipping: big changes in the last-mile, fulfillment, and returns
Last-mile delivery one of retail's biggest challenges, with 53% of shipping costs going to this final step. Traditional delivery methods struggle to meet consumer expectations for speed while maintaining profitability (31% of global consumers expect delivery in under 2 hours). Additionally, the rising volume of returns, reaching approximately 16.9% of sales, creates significant operational and financial burdens for retailers.
Here’s the solutions that innovative brands have started adopting:
01 Drone & robot delivery
Delivery robots and drones help to meet soaring demand for home deliveries, especially at peak times.
8 million commercial deliveries are expected in 2025 worldwide. As a result, by 2034, delivery costs are projected to decrease to $2.
02 Store-based fulfillment
There are more and more physical stores being transforming into hybrid fulfillment centers.
In the US, 90% of customers live within 10-mile radius to the closest Walmart store. Therefore, 5,200 US stores are now utilized for delivery. For Walmart, it resulted in 55% increase in delivery capacity since 2022 and 20% reduction in delivery costs.
03 Focus on reducing the return rate.
The rise of 'haul culture,' especially among Gen Z consumers, has led to increased return rates. 15% of UK shoppers admit they have bought clothing or footwear online simply with the purpose of showing them off on social media.
Retailers implementing data-driven return monitoring and policies to crack down on serial returners. New restrictive policies are emerging, such as limiting returns for repeat offenders, introducing return fees, or shortening return periods. Some have successfully reduced returns by rewarding low-return customers and employing AI-powered sizing tools.
ASOS imposes a £3.95 fee for customers with high return rates unless they retain items worth at least £40 from their original order.
Saks Fifth Avenue, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Zara have shortened return periods and introduced fees to manage the financial impact.
Net-a-Porter’s website says it monitors the number of returns made by customers to check they are not being used for “commercial, entrepreneurial or professional purposes” and reserves the right to refuse future orders.
Sophisticated sizing tools, such as Fit Analytics’s Fit Finder and Sizekick, leverage data and deep learning AI models to offer more accurate fit recommendations.
Key insights for brands:
Audit your current capabilities for automated and drone fulfillment opportunities. Even small retailers and brands can partner with local convenience stores for last-mile pickup points.
Consider predictive analytics to forecast demand patterns and identify potential return abuse before it happens.
Differential return policies: Rather than one-size-fits-all, implement segmented return policies based on customer behavior and purchase history.
AI-powered sizing tools and detailed product information can significantly reduce return rates while improving customer satisfaction.
05: The human touch in AI-powered personalisation
While technology enables unprecedented personalization, consumers still crave authentic human interactions in their shopping experiences. Companies are responding by designing creative and hybrid approaches that combine AI efficiency with human touchpoints. Particularly in premium and luxury service tiers.
Global consumer experience patterns
VML Tomorrow's Commerce, 2025
64% of consumers globally find online shopping uninspiring despite technological advances.
60% of consumers wish physical shopping experiences were more immersive and futuristic.
51% of global consumers feel stressed by constant digital trends, indicating a need for more balanced approaches.
The Human Element
In the US, 58% of US consumers value interactions with humans, emphasizing “human-as-a-premium” trend. This is especially emphasized in the luxury market.
82% of US consumers and 74% of non-US consumers want more human interaction in their future shopping experiences.
Personalization in wellness & health
Genetic personalization is emerging as a frontier for customized products:
65% of consumers now prioritize wellness in their purchasing decisions.
88% of consumers are willing to share their health data with medical providers.
Growing demand for DNA-based product recommendations in skincare and supplements, as well a customized wellness plans based on genetic profiles.
Digital Detox & Premium Experiences
Premium "disconnect" experiences are emerging where consumers pay more for digital-free shopping environments.
58% of global consumers feel overwhelmed by technology and are drawn to digital detoxes.
Key insights for brands:
Identify key customer journey touchpoints where human interaction adds the most value.
Create clear value propositions for both digital and human-centered experiences. Track the ROI and NPS of human interaction in customer service.
Consider systems that can scale from basic to highly sophisticated personalization based on customer preferences.
Create "digital detox" zones or experiences in physical retail spaces.
Design digital experiences that respect customers' need for boundaries and wellness.
Develop guidelines for maintaining brand voice across AI-generated content
06 The power shift among the big players
In 2025, established giants like Amazon and Walmart are becoming even more powerful, building comprehensive ecosystems that make them indispensable to consumers.
However, Chinese mega-platforms like Temu and Shein are also rapidly gaining market share in Western markets with their revolutionary direct-from-factory model.
According to Retail Dive, mid-sized retailers offering basic, lower-end brands are particularly vulnerable and "could disappear from the landscape without being missed," leading to widespread consolidation like Macy's accelerating store closures and HBC's acquisition of Neiman Marcus.
Data illustrating the trends:
75% of Americans believe "Amazon is a good thing for society".
Amazon and Walmart projected to capture 84% of retail ad spending in 2025
Walmart demonstrates enterprise-level innovation with an AI negotiation system achieving 64% deal closure rates and 1.5-3% cost savings.
63% of Western consumers planned to shop via Chinese apps for holiday 2024.
TikTok Shop is growing 156% year-over-year.
Key insights for brands:
Balance presence across dominant platforms while maintaining brand control. Diversification across multiple platforms helps reduce dependence on any single channel, it’s like a strategic insurance.
Brands need clear value propositions beyond price to remain competitive. Premium positioning must be backed by genuine differentiation.
Mid-sized brands must choose: either scale up through partnerships/consolidation or find defendable niches with unique value propositions. "Stuck in the middle" is increasingly unsustainable.
The retail landscape of 2025 rewards decisive strategic choices: scale aggressively through partnerships, develop unique specialized offerings, or risk being squeezed out by both mega-platforms and Chinese disruptors.
For established brands, maintaining control over customer relationships and brand identity becomes critical as platforms gain power, making selective platform participation and direct consumer connections essential survival tools. Clear positioning – whether through scale advantages or defendable niches – will determine which players thrive in this increasingly polarized market.
Is your brand future-proof for the big shifts in 2025?
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